Objective/Meaning Under the dual goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and the advancement of ecological civilization, coastal regions face the dual challenge of economic development and ecological security. Enhancing coastal resilience has become a key issue for achieving regional sustainable development. This study aims to examine the impact of the carbon emissions trading scheme on coastal resilience and to explore the underlying mechanism from the perspective of green governance.
Methods/Procedures Using panel data from 11 coastal provinces in China over the period 2009–2022, this study treats the pilot carbon emissions trading policy as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a multi-period difference-in-differences model to identify its effect on coastal resilience. Coastal resilience is measured, and new quality productive forces, comprising technological innovation, green transformation, and digital empowerment, are evaluated using the entropy method. Mediation effect models are applied to test the transmission mechanism, with further heterogeneity analysis conducted across regions.
Results/Conclusions The results show that: (1)the carbon emissions trading scheme significantly enhances coastal resilience in China’s coastal regions; (2)new quality productive forces, as an endogenous power featuring advancement and green characteristics, play a significant mediating role in the relationship between carbon emissions trading and coastal resilience; and (3) The policy effects are more pronounced in northern coastal regions and in areas with lower levels of marine economic development, reflecting a “catch-up effect”. Based on these findings, this study proposes improving the institutional design of the carbon emissions trading scheme, strengthening support for the cultivation of new quality productive forces and technological innovation, and promoting differentiated green governance strategies for coastal zones according to local conditions.
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