Objective/Meaning  The carrying capacity of water resources was an important factor affecting the agricultural planting structure. The Tarim River was the largest inland river in China, and its river basin was an important agricultural base in China. Optimizing the agricultural planting structure would help alleviate the problem of inefficient water use in the basin.

  Methods/Procedures  Based on the structural deviation model of water resource utilization, the structural deviation value of water resource utilization of regions and crops were calculated, and the efficiency of water resource use in the Tarim River Basin was analyzed in terms of spatial-temporal differences and crop differences. Then, the structural deviation value of water resource utilization in crops was used as the basis for adjusting the agricultural planting structure.

  Results/Conclusions  The study found that from 2000 to 2020, the water resources use efficiency in the Tarim River Basin shows an upward trend, among which the water resources use efficiency is higher in Bazhou and Kashgar, and lower in Aksu and Keshgar. Among the major crops grown in the Tarim River Basin, fruits and vegetables have higher water resource use efficiency, while grains and cotton have lower efficiency. Therefore, according to the requirements of “ensuring basic self-sufficiency of grain” and “stabilizing production of cotton”, it was suggested to maintain the cotton planting area, reduce the total area under grains and oilseeds, and increase the area under cultivation of fruits, vegetables, alfalfa, sugar beet and tuber crops on the basis of the full implementation of water-saving irrigation, so as to improve the water resources use efficiency of agriculture in the five prefectures of the Tarim River Basin.