农业科技创新与粮食安全的耦合协调及其时空分异研究基于30个省份面板数据的实证分析

Research on the Coupling Coordination and Spatio-temporal Differentiation of Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation and Food Security: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data from Thirty Provinces

  • 摘要:
    目的/意义 农业科技创新与粮食安全的耦合协调发展是农业现代化的题中之义。通过厘清二者作用机理,分析其耦合协调关系的动态演变与时空格局,可为推进两系统协同发展提供参考。
    方法/过程 基于我国30个省份2012—2023年面板数据,采用熵值法确定指标权重,运用耦合协调度模型测算两系统协调水平,并结合空间自相关模型分析其时空分布特征与集聚效应,系统揭示协调关系的演变规律。
    结果/结论 结果表明,我国农业科技创新与粮食安全的耦合协调度呈稳步提升态势,但区域差异显著,呈现显著的空间正相关与集聚特征,形成中、东部高水平集聚区与西部低水平集聚区。基于此,应强化政策引导、深化区域协调、增强科技赋能,推进大食物观落实,进一步推动两系统向高水平耦合协调发展。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective/Significance The synergistic development of agricultural science and technology innovation and food security is fundamental to advancing agricultural modernization. This study aims to elucidate the interaction mechanisms between these two systems, analyze the dynamic evolution and spatiotemporal patterns of their coupling coordination, and provide insights for fostering their integrated development.
    Method/Process Utilizing panel data from 30 provincial-level regions in China covering the period from 2012 to 2023, this research employs the entropy method to determine indicator weights. It applies a coupling coordination degree model to assess the coordination level between the two systems and incorporates a spatial autocorrelation model to examine their spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and agglomeration effects, thereby systematically revealing the evolution of their coordinated relationship.
    Results/Conclusions The findings indicate a steady improvement in the coupling coordination degree between AST innovation and food security in China, albeit with significant regional disparities. A positive spatial correlation and clear agglomeration effects are observed, manifesting as high-level clusters primarily in the central and eastern regions and low-level clusters mainly in the western region. Accordingly, policy recommendations include strengthening policy guidance, enhancing inter-regional coordination, boosting empowerment through technological advancement, and promoting the implementation of the Broad Food Approach to facilitate high-level synergistic development between the two systems.

     

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