数字经济发展对中国农产品出口二元边际的影响基于RCEP成员国数据的实证分析

Impact of Digital Economy Development on the Dual Margins of China’s Agricultural Product ExportsAn Empirical Study Based on the Data from RCEP Member Countries

  • 摘要:
    目的/意义 探索RCEP成员国数字经济发展对中国农产品出口二元边际的影响及路径,为在RCEP框架下中国如何通过数字经济赋能农产品出口高质量发展提供决策参考。
    方法/过程 从数字基础设施建设、数字技术外向竞争、数字经济创新环境、数字化应用4个维度建立指标体系,以测算数字经济发展水平,采用H-K法计算中国出口RCEP其他成员国农产品的二元边际(集约边际与扩展边际),多元回归分析数字经济发展水平对中国农产品出口二元边际的影响。
    结果/结论 结果显示,中国数字经济发展水平增速迅猛,在区域内处于领先地位;中国对RCEP其他成员国的农产品出口中,集约边际变化较大且各国间差异较大,而扩展边际整体处于较高水平且波动相对平缓;中国数字经济发展水平对中国农产品出口二元边际均有促进作用,而RCEP其他成员国数字经济发展水平对扩展边际起抑制作用;该影响在国家与产品层面存在异质性,且贸易成本和贸易波动在其中具有调节作用。据此,建议进一步强化数字经济对农产品贸易的促进作用,提升农业经济质量;采取差异化策略拓展出口市场,实现合作共赢;妥善应对贸易成本与波动,保障农产品贸易。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective/Meaning  Exploring the impact and path of the digital economy development of RCEP member countries on the dual margins of China’s agricultural exports could provide decision-making reference for China to enable the high-quality development of agricultural product exports through the digital economy under the RCEP framework.
    Methods/Procedures  The index system was established from the perspectives of digital infrastructure construction, digital technology external competition, digital economy innovation environment and digital application, so as to measure the development level of digital economy. The H-K method was used to calculate the dual margins (intensive margin and extensive margin) of China’s agricultural products exported to other member countries of RCEP, and the multiple regression analysis was conducted to analyze the impact of the development level of digital economy on the dual margins of China’s agricultural product exports.
    Results/Conclusions  The results showed that the development level of China’s digital economy was growing rapidly and was in a leading position in the region. In China’s agricultural exports to other RCEP member countries, the intensive margin showed relatively large changes with prominent differences among countries, while the extensive margin was generally at a high level with relatively small changes. The development level of digital economy in China had a promoting effect on the binary margin of China’s agricultural product exports, while the development level of digital economy in other RCEP member countries played an inhibitory effect on the extensive margin. The impact was heterogeneous at the national level and product level, and the trade costs and trade fluctuations played regulatory role in it. Accordingly, the countermeasures were put forward including further strengthening the role of digital economy in promoting the agricultural trade to improve the quality of agricultural economy, adopting the differentiated strategies to expand the export markets so as to achieve the win-win cooperation, and appropriately responding to the trade costs and fluctuations to ensure the trade in agricultural products.

     

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