基于VEC模型的台湾农产品贸易与经济增长关系研究

The Relationships between Agricultural Products Trade and Economic Growth in Taiwan Based on the VEC Model

  • 摘要: 基于1985-2012年时间序列数据,建立VEC模型,并运用协整分析、Granger因果关系检验、方差分解分析对台湾农产品贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证研究。结果表明,台湾农产品贸易与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡,每增加1%的农产品出口,会促进台湾经济增长0.3972%;误差修正机制使得短期内农产品贸易与经济增长的非均衡状态逐步趋于均衡;台湾农产品出口是GDP的单向Granger原因,台湾GDP是农产品进口的单向Granger原因;台湾农产品出口对经济变化的贡献率远大于农产品进口对经济变化的贡献率。

     

    Abstract: Based on timeseries data from 1985 to 2012, this paper makes an empirical research on the relationship between agricultural product trade and economic growth in Taiwan by establishing VEC model and using the methods of cointegration analysis, Granger causality test and variance decomposition analysis. The results show that there is a longterm equilibrium between agricultural product trade and economic growth in Taiwan. Each 1% increase in agricultural product exports could promote Taiwan’s economic growth by 0.3972%. The error correction mechanism transfer the nonequilibrium state of agricultural product trade and economic growth in shortterm into equilibrium gradually. In Taiwan, agricultural product exports is unidirectional Granger cause of GDP. Meanwhile, GDP also is unidirectional Granger cause of agricultural product imports. The rate of agricultural exports contribution to economic change is much higher than the agricultural imports contribution to economic change.

     

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