农业新质生产力水平测度及时空演化分析

The Measurement of Agricultural New Quality Productivity Level and the Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Evolution

  • 摘要:
    目的/意义 发展农业新质生产力是推动农业现代化、破解乡村振兴瓶颈的核心路径。
    方法/过程 以2012—2024年中国31个省份(不含港澳台地区)面板数据测度农业新质生产力发展水平并分析其时空分布特征及演变趋势,构建“农业科技创新—农业绿色发展—农业数字智能—农业发展价值”四位一体指标体系,运用熵值法、Dagum基尼系数、Kernel核密度分析及标准差椭圆等方法。
    结果/结论 结果表明:(1)时空演化:农业新质生产力整体呈加速增长态势,空间格局经历“东北单点集聚—东中部连片扩张—全域梯度渗透”的演进过程;(2)核密度分布呈现“多峰收敛、极化凸显”特征,全国层面形成多极化趋势,东部持续领跑且内部差异扩大,中部稳步追赶并出现分化,西部提升缓慢且内部不平衡加剧;(3)区域差异方面,总体基尼系数均值为0.1647,呈平稳波动态势,区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源,区域内差异呈现东部>西部>中部格局;(4)空间重心持续向西南迁移,标准差椭圆呈“东北—西南”分布格局,空间分布向心集聚趋势明显。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective/Meaning The development of new agricultural productivity is the core path to promote agricultural modernization and break the bottleneck of rural revitalization.
    Methods/Procedures Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2024, the development level of new agricultural productivity was measured and its spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and evolution trend were analyzed. The four-in-one index system of “agricultural science and technology innovation-agricultural green development-agricultural digital intelligence-agricultural development value” was constructed, and the entropy method, Dagum Gini coefficient, Kernel density analysis and standard deviation ellipse were used.
    Results/Conclusions The results showed that: (1) Spatial and temporal evolution: the overall agricultural new quality productivity showed an accelerating growth trend, and the spatial pattern experienced the evolution process of “single point agglomeration in Northeast China-continuous expansion in East and Central China-global gradient infiltration”. (2) The distribution of nuclear density shows the characteristics of 'multi-peak convergence and polarization highlighting'. A multi-polarization trend is formed at the national level. The eastern region continues to lead and the internal differences expand. The central region steadily catches up and differentiates. The western region rises slowly and the internal imbalance intensifies. In terms of regional differences, the average value of the overall Gini coefficient is 0.1647, showing a steady fluctuation trend. Interregional differences are the main source of overall differences, and intraregional differences show the pattern of eastern > western > central; the spatial center of gravity continued to migrate to the southwest, the standard deviation ellipse showed a “northeast-southwest” distribution pattern, and the spatial distribution showed a clear trend of centripetal agglomeration.

     

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