Objective/Meaning Against the specific background where the degree of rural population aging in China is continuously deepening, which poses severe and rigorous challenges to traditional agricultural production models, exploring precisely how this demographic shift influences Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is of vital importance for promoting the overall process of agricultural modernization.

Method/Procedures To address this issue, this paper conducts an empirical investigation based on China’s provincial panel data covering the period from 2012 to 2023. The study systematically analyzes the impact of rural population aging on agricultural TFP.

Result/Conclusions The research findings indicate three main points. First, rural population aging exerts a significant direct inhibitory effect on agricultural TFP. Second, despite this negative direct impact, aging simultaneously plays a positive mediating role through a “forcing” mechanism. Specifically, the pressure of aging compels an increase in investment in technical equipment, which in turn boosts productivity. Third, this mechanism is regulated by a threshold effect based on the penetration rate of agricultural mechanization. The study demonstrates that once the mechanization penetration rate crosses a specific critical value, the promoting effect of technical equipment on TFP is significantly enhanced. Based on these findings, it is suggested that policy strategies should focus on strictly addressing the challenges of aging by developing aging-adapted smart agriculture and fostering socialized agricultural services. By leveraging new quality productive forces to activate the endogenous dynamics of agricultural modernization, the sector can effectively cope with the challenges posed by an aging rural population.