青海省绿色有机农牧业发展系统动力学仿真模拟分析

SD Simulation Analysis of Green Organic Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Development in Ethnic Regions: A Case Study of Qinghai Province

  • 摘要:
    目的/意义 对青海省农牧业绿色发展的影响政策体系进行仿真模拟,分析政府政策所影响的各个变量,旨在为形成绿色有机农牧业新质生产力,提高生产要素配置效率,制定政策、提升成效提供理论依据。
    方法/过程 采用系统动力学分析方法,利用Vensim PLE软件构建数量关系模型,对青海省农牧业绿色发展及政策系统进行仿真模拟。
    结果/结论 根据《青海省统计年鉴》2018—2022年的相关数据和现有文献研究的经验数据,在系统仿真过程中将17项生产要素的增长率均设置为1.02或0.98时,当绿色农业累积衡量机制的复合增长率>1时,导致当年粮食总产量和当年肉类总产量较上年正增长;反之复合增长率<1时,导致当年粮食总产量和当年肉类总产量较上年负增长。

     

    Abstract:
    Purpose/Significance To simulate the impact policy system of green development in agriculture and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province, analyze the various variables affected by government policies, and provide theoretical basis for forming new quality productivity of green organic agriculture and animal husbandry, improving the efficiency of production factor allocation, formulating policies, and enhancing effectiveness.
    Method/Process Using the system dynamics analysis method, a quantitative relationship model was constructed using Vensim PLE software to simulate the green development and policy system of agriculture and animal husbandry in Qinghai Province.
    Result/Conclusion  Based on relevant data from the Qinghai Statistical Yearbook from 2018 to 2022 and empirical data from existing literature research, when the growth rates of 17 production factors were set to 1.02 or 0.98 in the system simulation process, when the compound growth rate of the green agriculture cumulative measurement mechanism was greater than 1, it resulted in a positive increase in the total grain output and total meat output of the year compared to the previous year; On the contrary, when the compound growth rate is less than 1, it leads to a negative increase in the total grain production and total meat production compared to the previous year.

     

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