两岸农产品产业内贸易影响因素对比分析

A Comparative Analysis of the Influencing Factors on Agricultural Intra-industry TradeBetween Both Sides of the Taiwan Strait

  • 摘要:
    目的/意义 分析2014—2023年两岸农产品产业内贸易的水平、影响因素及变化趋势,为促进两岸农产品贸易发展提供参考。
    方法/过程 采用G-L指数与MIIT指数测算产业内贸易水平,并基于多元回归引力模型对比分析其影响因素。
    结果/结论 G-L指数表明两岸农产品贸易呈现产业内贸易向产业间贸易转变的趋势,越南与中国大陆、中国台湾地区均保持较高的农产品产业内贸易水平。MIIT指数显示两岸农产品贸易增量主要由产业间贸易驱动,中国大陆与越南,中国台湾地区与韩国及泰国保持着较高的MIIT数值。市场开放度差异与地理距离对两岸产业内贸易具有显著抑制作用,农产品贸易竞争力对大陆有正面影响而对台湾地区有负面影响。建议通过深化区域合作、协调市场开放政策、提升产品差异及降低物流成本等措施,进一步促进两岸农产品贸易发展。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective/Meaning The analysis on the level, influencing factors and changing trend of intra-industry trade of agricultural products between both sides of the Taiwan Strait from 2014 to 2023 can provide reference for promoting the development of agricultural products trade between both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
    Methods/Procedures  The G-L index and MIIT index were used to measure the level of intra-industry trade, and the influencing factors of intra-industry trade between both sides of the Taiwan Strait were compared and analyzed based on the multiple regression gravity model.
    Results/Conclusions  The G-L index showed that the agricultural trade between both sides of the Taiwan Strait has shown the tendency of changing from intra-industry trade to inter-industry trade, and Vietnam maintained a high level of intra-industry trade in agricultural products with both sides of the Taiwan Strait. The MIIT index showed that the trade increment between both sides of the Taiwan Strait was mainly driven by the inter-industrial trade. The index of MIIT between Chinese mainland and Vietnam, and those of Taiwan-South Korean and Taiwan-Thailand were high. The difference in market openness and geographical distance had a significant inhibitory effect on the cross-strait intra-industrial trade. The competitiveness of agricultural products trade had a positive effect on the intra-industrial trade of Chinese mainland whereas its impact was negative for Taiwan. It was suggested to further promote the development of the cross-strait agricultural products trade by deepening the regional cooperation, coordinating the market opening policies, improving the product differentiation and reducing the logistics costs.

     

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