绿色治理政策对海岸带韧性的影响基于新质生产力的中介作用

Effect of Green Governance Policies on the Resilience of Coastal ZoneA Mediating Role Based on New Quality Productive Forces

  • 摘要:
    目的/意义 在“双碳”目标与生态文明建设背景下,海岸带地区面临生态压力与经济机遇并存的挑战,提升海岸带韧性成为实现区域可持续发展的关键议题。
    方法/过程 基于2009—2022年中国11个沿海省份的面板数据,将碳排放权交易试点政策视为准自然实验,构建多时点双重差分模型,实证分析碳排放权交易对海岸带韧性的影响;同时,构建包含科技创新、绿色转型、数字赋能三个维度的新质生产力评价指标体系,采用熵值法进行综合测度,验证其在影响过程中的中介作用。
    结果/结论 研究发现:(1)碳排放权交易制度显著提升了沿海地区海岸带韧性;(2)新质生产力作为一种具备先进性与绿色性的内生动力,其在碳排放权交易影响海岸带韧性的过程中发挥中介作用;(3)该政策效应在北方沿海地区及海洋经济发展水平较低地区更为明显,体现了政策的“追赶效应”。据此提出完善碳排放权交易制度设计、强化新质生产力培育与技术创新支持、因地制宜推进差异化海岸带绿色治理等政策建议。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective/Meaning Under the background of the dual goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and ecological civilization construction, the coastal zone is facing the challenge of coexistence of ecological pressure and economic opportunities. Improving the resilience of the coastal zone has become a key issue to achieve the regional sustainable development.
    Methods/Procedures  Based on the panel data of 11 coastal provinces in China from 2009 to 2022, the pilot policy of carbon emission trading was regarded as a quasi-natural experiment, and a multi-time difference-in-difference model was constructed to empirically analyze the impact of carbon emission trading on the resilience of coastal zone. Meanwhile, the evaluation index system of new quality productivity including three dimensions of scientific and technological innovation, green transformation and digital empowerment was constructed, and the entropy method was used to comprehensively measure and verify its intermediary role in the process of influence.
    Results/Conclusions The results showed that: (1) the carbon emissions trading scheme has significantly improved the resilience of coastal zones in coastal areas; (2)The new quality productive forces, as an endogenous power featuring advancement and green characteristics, played a significant mediating role in the process of carbon emission trading affecting the coastal zone resilience; (3) The policy effects were more pronounced in the northern coastal regions and in the areas with lower levels of marine economic development, reflecting a “catch-up effect” of the policy. Based on these findings, some policy suggestions were put forward, such as improving the institutional design of the carbon emissions trading scheme, strengthening the support for the cultivation of new quality productive forces and technological innovation, and promoting differentiated green governance strategies for coastal zones according to the local conditions.

     

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