Objective/Meaning Under the specific background where the degree of rural population aging in China is continuously deepening, which poses severe and rigorous challenges to the traditional agricultural production models, it is very important to explore how it affects the agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) for promoting the overall process of agricultural modernization.

Methods/Procedures Based on the provincial level panel data in China from 2012 to 2023, the impact of rural population aging on the agricultural total factor productivity was explored.

Results/Conclusions  The study found that aging had a significant direct inhibitory effect on the agricultural total factor productivity; but at the same time, it promoted the investment of technical equipment through the anti-driving mechanism, and then played a positive intermediary role. In addition, the mechanism was regulated by the threshold of the penetration rate of agricultural mechanization, and the promotion effect was significantly enhanced after crossing the threshold. Based on these findings, it was suggested that policy strategies should focus on strictly addressing the challenges of aging by developing the aging-adapted smart agriculture and fostering the socialized agricultural services, and activating the driving force of agricultural modernization with new quality productivity, thus to cope with the challenge of aging.