F2C模式下农产品质量的三方演化博弈及仿真研究

Research on Tripartite Evolutionary Game and Simulation of Agricultural Product Quality Under F2C Model

  • 摘要:
    目的/意义 以F2C为代表的电商模式向农业领域不断拓展,一定程度上提升了农产品质量。但“产品质量信号+投标金额”的排名机制和“赢家通吃”的模式可能引发投机和低质量风险,影响农产品质量安全。分析电商平台、农户和消费者三者间实现高质量农产品供给的条件及均衡状态,以期给出更具针对性的建议,助力农产品质量和销量提升。
    方法/过程 采用Python进行仿真实验和数值模拟,构建电商平台、农户和消费者三方演化博弈模型,分析各主体初始意愿和不同要素对三方策略选择的影响。
    结果/结论 电商平台和农户的初始意愿会对演化博弈的最终结果产生重要影响;电商平台查处概率的增加能够对农户起到很好的威慑作用,推动演化博弈更快地趋于理想状态;消费者行为难以对演化博弈的收敛方向产生影响,只能被动接受电商平台和农户提供的产品信息。据此提出建议:建立多样奖励机制;提高检验效率和降低成本;实施必要的约束措施;建立消费者反馈机制。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective/Meaning The e-commerce model represented by F2C has been continuously expanded to the agricultural field, which has improved the quality of agricultural products to a certain extent. However, the ranking mechanism of “product quality signal + bidding amount” and the “winner-take-all” model may lead to speculation and low quality risks, affecting the quality security of agricultural products. By analyzing the conditions and equilibrium state of the supply of high-quality agricultural products among the e-commerce platform, farmers and consumers, it aimed to give more targeted suggestions to help improve the quality and sales of agricultural products.
    Methods/Procedures In this paper, Python was used to carry out the simulation experiments and numerical simulations, and then the tripartite evolutionary game model of e-commerce platform, peasant households and consumers was constructed to analyze the influence of the initial willingness of each subject and different factors on the choice of tripartite strategies.
    Results/Conclusions The initial willingness of the e-commerce platform and peasant households would have an important impact on the final result of the evolutionary game; the increase in the probability of investigation and punishment of e-commerce platform could play a good deterrent role for farmers and promote the evolutionary game to approach the ideal state faster; the consumer behavior was difficult to affect the convergence direction of the evolutionary game, and could only passively accept the product information provided by the e-commerce platform and farmers. Based on this, some countermeasures were put forward, including establishing a variety of incentive mechanisms, improving the inspection efficiency and reducing the costs, implementing the necessary constraint measures, and establishing the feedback mechanism of consumers.

     

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