成渝地区双城经济圈县域人口分布的时空演变特征及驱动因素

Spatial-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Population Distribution at the County Level in Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

  • 摘要:
    目的/意义 深化对中国西部经济圈人口分布规律的认识,旨在为成渝地区双城经济圈的发展战略规划及公共服务资源的优化配置提供科学依据。
    方法/过程 以区县为单元,考察成渝地区双城经济圈的人口空间分布与演变趋势,基于2000—2020年三次人口普查数据和县域统计年鉴数据,利用空间自相关和地理加权回归等方法分析该地区人口分布演变的特征与人口分布的影响因素。
    结果/结论 (1)人口集中分布在成渝两市的中心城区,呈现“双黄蛋”的整体形态;(2)人口在成渝聚集的趋势不断增强,并且逐渐向周边区县扩张;(3)人口重心大致由东向西偏北方向移动,但仍处于四川盆地中部;(4)第三产业增加值高对人口密度分布产生正向激励作用,而第二产业增加值以及普通中学专任教师数的增加则与人口密度分布呈负相关关系,医院、卫生院床位数、地区的平均高程以及平均坡地坡度对人口密度分布的影响则较为复杂,同时具有正向和反向作用。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective/Meaning Deepening the understanding of the population distribution law in the western economic circle of China aimed to provide scientific basis for the development strategy planning and the optimal allocation of public service resources in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle.
    Methods/Procedures By taking districts and counties as the units, the spatial distribution and evolution trend of population in Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle were investigated. Based on the data of three population censuses and county statistical yearbooks from 2000 to 2020, the characteristics of population distribution evolution in this area and the influencing factors of population distribution were analyzed by using the methods of spatial autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression.
    Results/Conclusions The results showed that: (1) The population was mainly concentrated in the central urban areas of Chengdu and Chongqing, presenting the overall form of “double-yolked egg”; (2) The trend of population aggregation in Chengdu and Chongqing was continuously strengthening, and it has gradually expanded to the surrounding counties; (3) The population gravity center was generally moving from east to west in a slightly northern direction, but still located in the central part of the Sichuan Basin; (4) The high added value of the tertiary industry had a positive incentive effect on the distribution of population density, while the added value of the secondary industry and the increase in the number of full-time teachers in the general high schools had a negative correlation with the distribution of population density. The number of beds in the hospitals and health centers, the average elevation of the region, and the average slope gradient had a more complex impact on the distribution of population density, with both positive and negative effects.

     

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