Objective/Meaning The agricultural industry agglomeration is an important path to achieve the low-carbon development in agriculture. Exploring the impact of agricultural industry agglomeration on the agricultural carbon emissions and analyzing the path of agricultural industrial agglomeration affecting the agricultural carbon emissions could provide reference and guidance for China to achieve the low-carbon development in agriculture and the “dual carbon” goals.

Methods/Procedures Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2022, the nonlinear damping influence of agricultural industry agglomeration on the agricultural carbon emissions was explored by constructing the two-way fixed effect model.

Results/Conclusions The research has found that firstly, the agricultural industry agglomeration had an inverted U-shaped impact on the agricultural carbon emissions. When the level of industrial agglomeration was low, the agricultural carbon emissions would increase with the improvement of agricultural industrial agglomeration level. However, when the level of agricultural industry agglomeration reached the inflection point of 5.820, the carbon emissions would decrease with the improvement of agglomeration level. Secondly, the agricultural industry agglomeration could inhibit the agricultural carbon emissions through the regional agricultural technological innovation. Thirdly, there was regional heterogeneity in the impact of agricultural industrial agglomeration on the agricultural carbon emissions. The inflection point of the inverted U-shaped impact of agricultural industry agglomeration on the carbon emissions in the great agricultural provinces was smaller than that in the non big agricultural provinces. In view of this, it was proposed to adopt the measures such as transforming the agricultural production methods, improving the level of agricultural technological innovation, and improving the level of agricultural industry agglomeration according to local conditions, in order to further exert the positive effects of agricultural industry agglomeration on the low-carbon development in agriculture.