基于百度指数的广东省森林旅游网络关注度及时空差异性分析

Analysis of Network Attention and Temporal and Spatial Differences of Forest Tourism in Guangdong Province Based on Baidu Index

  • 摘要:
    目的/意义 在国家大力推动生态文明建设和广东省实行绿化大行动的背景下,探索广东省森林旅游的时空演变规律,以期为森林旅游市场需求预测及宣传营销提供借鉴。
    方法/过程 借助百度指数,运用数理模型、计量工具分析国内31个省份对广东森林旅游网络关注度的时空特征及影响因素。
    结果/结论 研究结果显示:在时间层面,网络关注度总体呈“S”型波动,淡旺季明显,夏季>秋季>春季>冬季,黄金周前兆效应显著但有减小趋势。在空间层面,客源市场呈现“广东省内和江苏省双核心,向周边省份递减”“二级市场居多,趋向均衡化”的发展态势。通过灰色关联度分析发现,经济发展水平、教育水平、交通便捷度、互联网发展水平和节庆活动是影响网络关注度的主要因素。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective/Meaning Under the background of the state vigorous promoting the construction of ecological civilization and the implementation of afforestation action in Guangdong Province, the temporal and spatial evolution law of forest tourism in Guangdong Province were explored in this paper, in order to provide references for the prediction of forest tourism market demand and publicity and marketing.
    Methods/Procedures With the help of Baidu index, the spatial and temporal characteristics and influencing factors of the network attention of 31 provinces in China to Guangdong's forest tourism were analyzed by using the mathematical models and econometric tools.
    Results/Conclusions The results showed that: In terms of time, the network attention generally showed an “S” type fluctuation, which was obvious in the off and peak seasons, and in summer > autumn > spring > winter. The precursor effect of golden week holiday was significant but had a decreasing trend. At the spatial level, the tourist market has presented the development trend of “dual core in Guangdong Province and Jiangsu Province, decreasing to the surrounding provinces” and “secondary market in the majority, tending to be balanced”. Through the grey correlation analysis, it was found that the economic development level, educational level, degree of traffic convenience, Internet development level and festival activities were the main factors affecting the network attention.

     

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