中国—新西兰自由贸易协定对两国乳制品贸易的影响

冉雨弘, 黄晖煌, 庄佩芬

冉雨弘, 黄晖煌, 庄佩芬. 中国—新西兰自由贸易协定对两国乳制品贸易的影响[J]. 台湾农业探索, 2023, 45(1): 36-43. DOI: 10.16006/j.cnki.twnt.2023.01.006
引用本文: 冉雨弘, 黄晖煌, 庄佩芬. 中国—新西兰自由贸易协定对两国乳制品贸易的影响[J]. 台湾农业探索, 2023, 45(1): 36-43. DOI: 10.16006/j.cnki.twnt.2023.01.006
RAN Yu-hong, HUANG Hui-huang, ZHUANG Pei-fen. Impact of the Free Trade Agreement Between China and New Zealand on Dairy Products Trade Between the Two Countries[J]. TAIWAN AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH, 2023, 45(1): 36-43. DOI: 10.16006/j.cnki.twnt.2023.01.006
Citation: RAN Yu-hong, HUANG Hui-huang, ZHUANG Pei-fen. Impact of the Free Trade Agreement Between China and New Zealand on Dairy Products Trade Between the Two Countries[J]. TAIWAN AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH, 2023, 45(1): 36-43. DOI: 10.16006/j.cnki.twnt.2023.01.006

中国—新西兰自由贸易协定对两国乳制品贸易的影响

基金项目: 教育部高校国别和区域研究年度课题(2020-N58)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    冉雨弘(2000—),女,硕士研究生,研究方向:国际贸易. E-mail:ranyuhaong@163.com

    通讯作者:

    庄佩芬(1970—),女,教授,博士,研究方向:国际经济学. E-mail:pfzhuang@hotmail.com

  • 中图分类号: F746

Impact of the Free Trade Agreement Between China and New Zealand on Dairy Products Trade Between the Two Countries

  • 摘要:
      目的/意义  自由贸易协定(FTA)有利于两国贸易,促进经济发展。
      方法/过程  通过Excel函数以UN Comtrade数据库2000—2020年中新两国的乳制品进出口贸易额测算TIITRCATCI这4个指数,对比分析FTA签订前后2个时期的指数变化,以及通过Stata以UN Comtrade数据库2000—2020年中国前5大乳制品进口来源国的贸易数据建立引力模型,研究FTA对中新两国乳制品贸易的影响。
      结果/结论  结果显示,新西兰乳制品有较大的出口优势,FTA的签署加深了中国进口与新西兰出口乳制品贸易的互补性。引力模型显示FTA与中新两国乳制品贸易额呈正相关,两国间的GDP差额对中国乳制品进口额有正向影响,两国间的运输成本对中国乳制品进口额有负向影响,中新两国乳制品贸易额总体呈上升趋势。
    Abstract:
      Objective/Meaning  The free trade agreement (FTA) was beneficial to the trade between the two countries and could promote the economic development.
      Methods/Procedures  The four indexes of TII, T, RCA and TCI were calculated by using the Excel function with the import and export trade volume of dairy products between China and New Zealand in the UN Comtrade database from 2000 to 2020. The index changes in the two periods before and after the signing of the FTA were compared and analyzed, and the gravity model was established by using the Stata software based on the trade data of the top five dairy import source countries with China from 2000 to 2020 in the UN Comtrade database, in order to study the impact of FTA on the dairy trade between China and New Zealand.
      Results/Conclusions  The results showed that the dairy products in New Zealand had great export advantages, and the signing of FTA has deepened the complementarity between the import trade of dairy products in China and the export trade of dairy products in New Zealand. The gravity model showed that FTA was positively correlated with the trade volume of dairy products between China and New Zealand, the difference in GDP between the two countries had a positive impact on the import volume of dairy products in China, and the transportation cost between the two countries had a negative impact on the import volume of dairy products in China. The trade volume of dairy products between China and New Zealand generally showed an increasing tendency.
  • 图  1   中国进口新西兰乳制品贸易额

    注:数据由UN Comtrade Database相关资料整理获得。

    表  1   中国、新西兰乳制品进出口贸易规模 (单位:亿美元)

    年份中国新西兰
    出口贸易额进口贸易额净出口贸易额出口贸易额进口贸易额净出口贸易额
    20001.882.18-0.3020.890.1820.70
    20011.922.19-0.2726.750.1826.58
    20021.942.72-0.7824.150.2423.91
    20032.223.50-1.2827.720.2327.48
    20042.344.48-2.1433.170.3032.86
    20052.674.62-1.9436.650.4936.16
    20063.025.65-2.6340.520.5040.01
    20074.617.53-2.9255.670.7654.91
    20086.218.73-2.5266.180.7965.40
    20093.4010.46-7.0651.010.8250.20
    20104.0520.00-15.9575.120.8874.23
    20114.9926.58-21.59120.211.30118.91
    20125.3432.51-27.1793.631.4892.15
    20135.4552.45-47.00111.581.61109.97
    20145.8664.91-59.05122.421.77120.65
    20156.0633.03-26.9782.961.8881.09
    20165.9035.17-29.2780.041.4378.61
    20175.8850.70-44.82102.011.72100.29
    20185.9056.01-50.12101.872.1399.74
    20195.6163.52-57.91106.552.44104.11
    20205.7772.89-67.12106.202.37103.83
     注:数据由UN Comtrade Database相关资料整理获得,表2表3同。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2   2000—2020年中国—新西兰乳制品贸易强度指数

    年份Xpq(亿美元)Xpw(亿美元)Mpw(亿美元)Mww(亿美元)TIIpq
    20000.8620.894.06269.532.728
    20010.8826.754.11287.892.305
    20021.1324.154.66292.532.939
    20031.7427.725.71353.903.895
    20042.3533.176.82409.094.243
    20052.2236.657.29431.333.586
    20062.7140.528.67467.283.606
    20072.9155.6712.14595.012.564
    20083.2166.1814.94688.482.236
    20095.8651.0113.87569.374.714
    201013.0175.1224.05666.654.804
    201116.47120.2131.57801.123.478
    201220.3593.6337.85778.064.468
    201332.99111.5857.90890.804.549
    201441.69122.4270.77951.064.576
    201517.5882.9639.10743.574.031
    201618.8680.0441.06720.064.132
    201727.82102.0156.58844.294.070
    201830.82101.8761.91872.394.263
    201934.56106.5569.13860.174.036
    202036.29106.2078.66857.763.727
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3   乳制品产业内贸易指数

    年份中国新西兰
    $| $X-M$| $(亿美元)X+M)(亿美元)T$| $X-M$| $(亿美元)X+M)(亿美元)T
    20000.304.060.92620.7021.070.018
    20010.274.110.93526.5826.930.013
    20020.784.660.83223.9124.380.019
    20031.285.710.77527.4827.950.017
    20042.146.820.68732.8633.470.018
    20051.947.290.73336.1637.140.026
    20062.638.670.69640.0141.020.025
    20072.9212.140.76054.9156.440.027
    20082.5214.940.83165.4066.970.023
    20097.0613.870.49150.2051.830.031
    201015.9524.050.33674.2376.000.023
    201121.5931.570.316118.91121.510.021
    201227.1737.850.28292.1595.110.031
    201347.0057.900.188109.97113.190.028
    201459.0570.770.166120.65124.190.028
    201526.9739.100.31081.0984.840.044
    201629.2741.060.28778.6181.470.035
    201744.8256.580.208100.29103.720.033
    201850.1261.910.19099.74104.000.041
    201957.9169.130.162104.11108.990.045
    202067.1278.660.147103.83108.560.044
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4   中国—新西兰乳制品贸易竞争力指数

    年份中国新西兰
    20000.0000.288
    20010.0000.254
    2002-0.325
    20030.0000.428
    2004-0.478
    2005/0.449
    20060.0000.567
    20070.0010.466
    20080.0020.448
    20090.0020.897
    20100.0041.661
    20110.0011.317
    20120.0022.057
    20130.0022.459
    20140.0022.961
    20150.0041.742
    20160.0021.737
    20170.0022.050
    20180.0022.172
    20190.0012.274
    20200.0012.467
     注:数据由UN Comtrade Database、中国海关总署相关资料计算获得。其中“0”值源于中国乳制品贸易额小,计算结果保留3位小数所致;-表示该数据缺失。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5   中国、新西兰乳制品贸易互补性指数

    年份中国进口新西兰乳制品(新西兰乳制品出口到中国)中国乳制品出口到新西兰(新西兰进口中国乳制品)
    20000.0670.000
    20010.0490.000
    20020.067-
    20030.0780.000
    20040.087-
    20050.076/
    20060.1050.000
    20070.0860.001
    20080.0810.001
    20090.2030.001
    20100.5380.003
    20110.4510.001
    20120.8520.002
    20131.3690.002
    20141.9060.002
    20150.7480.004
    20160.8420.002
    20171.1680.002
    20181.2540.002
    20191.5090.002
    20201.7480.002
     注:数据由UN Comtrade Database相关资料计算获得。其中“0”值源于中国乳制品贸易额小,计算结果保留3位小数所致;-表示该数据缺失。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6   FE模型回归结果

    变量lnImportpq
    lnGDPcq0.533***
    (9.290)
    lnTcoastcq-0.421***
    (-3.900)
    lnEXR1.699***
    (3.920)
    FTA0.959***
    (6.710)
    _cons1.278
    (0.510)
    N72
    r2_a0.890
     注:******分别代表10%、5%和1%显著性水平下显著。
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2022-10-17
  • 网络出版日期:  2023-01-05
  • 刊出日期:  2023-02-19

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