中国—新西兰自由贸易协定对两国乳制品贸易的影响

Impact of the Free Trade Agreement Between China and New Zealand on Dairy Products Trade Between the Two Countries

  • 摘要:
      目的/意义  自由贸易协定(FTA)有利于两国贸易,促进经济发展。
      方法/过程  通过Excel函数以UN Comtrade数据库2000—2020年中新两国的乳制品进出口贸易额测算TIITRCATCI这4个指数,对比分析FTA签订前后2个时期的指数变化,以及通过Stata以UN Comtrade数据库2000—2020年中国前5大乳制品进口来源国的贸易数据建立引力模型,研究FTA对中新两国乳制品贸易的影响。
      结果/结论  结果显示,新西兰乳制品有较大的出口优势,FTA的签署加深了中国进口与新西兰出口乳制品贸易的互补性。引力模型显示FTA与中新两国乳制品贸易额呈正相关,两国间的GDP差额对中国乳制品进口额有正向影响,两国间的运输成本对中国乳制品进口额有负向影响,中新两国乳制品贸易额总体呈上升趋势。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective/Meaning  The free trade agreement (FTA) was beneficial to the trade between the two countries and could promote the economic development.
      Methods/Procedures  The four indexes of TII, T, RCA and TCI were calculated by using the Excel function with the import and export trade volume of dairy products between China and New Zealand in the UN Comtrade database from 2000 to 2020. The index changes in the two periods before and after the signing of the FTA were compared and analyzed, and the gravity model was established by using the Stata software based on the trade data of the top five dairy import source countries with China from 2000 to 2020 in the UN Comtrade database, in order to study the impact of FTA on the dairy trade between China and New Zealand.
      Results/Conclusions  The results showed that the dairy products in New Zealand had great export advantages, and the signing of FTA has deepened the complementarity between the import trade of dairy products in China and the export trade of dairy products in New Zealand. The gravity model showed that FTA was positively correlated with the trade volume of dairy products between China and New Zealand, the difference in GDP between the two countries had a positive impact on the import volume of dairy products in China, and the transportation cost between the two countries had a negative impact on the import volume of dairy products in China. The trade volume of dairy products between China and New Zealand generally showed an increasing tendency.

     

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