农业机械化与农民增收互动关系的实证研究基于新疆25年的时间序列数据

Empirical Study on the Interactive Relationship Between Agricultural Mechanization and Farmers’ Income IncreaseBased on the 25-year Time Series Data of Xinjiang

  • 摘要:
      目的/意义  在乡村振兴背景下,探究农业机械化与农民增收之间的动态关系,为新疆当地农机化水平的快速发展,提升农业生产效率和农民增收提供对策建议。
      方法/过程  基于新疆1995—2020年的25年时间序列数据,运用灰色关联分析法和VAR模型,利用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数与方差分解分别探究了农民增收与农业机械化发展水平之间的关系。
      结果/结论  结果表明:农民人均纯收入与农业机械化的灰色关联度为0.780,关系较为密切;新疆农业机械化水平的发展与农民人均纯收入的增长有着长期均衡关系,农业机械总动力每增加1%,农民人均纯收入将会增加1.6315%;方差分解的结果表明,新疆农机化程度与农民增收间有一定的相互影响作用,但当地农民人均纯收入的变动对农机化程度变动的影响作用要低于农机化程度对农民人均纯收入的变动。据此建议:不断提升农机化水平,补齐发展短板;加强农机化人才队伍建设,做到以点带面;推进农机合作社高质量发展,增强服务实力。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective/Meaning   Under the background of rural revitalization, the dynamic relationship between the agricultural mechanization and the increase of farmers’ income was explored in this paper, in order to provide countermeasures and suggestions for the rapid development of local agricultural mechanization in Xinjiang, as well as the improvement of agricultural production efficiency and the increase of farmers’ income.
      Methods/Procedures   Based on the 25-year time series data of Xinjiang from 1995 to 2020, the grey relational analysis method and VAR model were used to explore the relationship between the increase of farmers’ income and the development level of agricultural mechanization by using Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition, respectively.
      Results/Conclusions  The results showed that the grey correlation degree between farmers’per capita net income and agricultural mechanization was 0.780, which was closely related. The development of agricultural mechanization level in Xinjiang had a long-term equilibrium relationship with the growth of farmers’ per capita net income. When the total power of agricultural machinery increased by 1%, the farmers’ per capita net income would increase by 1.6315%. The results of variance decomposition showed that there was a certain interaction between the degree of agricultural mechanization and the increase of farmers’ income in Xinjiang, but the influence of the change of local farmers’ per capita net income on the change of agricultural mechanization degree was lower than that of the change of agricultural mechanization degree on the change of farmers’ per capita net income. Accordingly, the countermeasures were put forward including continuously improving the level of agricultural mechanization to make up for the shortcomings of development, strengthening the construction of talent team for the agricultural mechanization to fan out from point to area, and promoting the high-quality development of agricultural machinery cooperatives to enhance the service strength.

     

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