中三角城乡建设用地指标交易与区域经济增长基于重庆地票政策的实证研究

Urban-rural Construction Land Index Transaction and Regional Economic Growth in the Central Yangtze Delta RegionAn Empirical Study Based on the Land Ticket Policy in Chongqing

  • 摘要:
      目的/意义  当前城乡土地制度的二元制限制着建设用地指标的自由交易,阻碍了指标经济要素的最优化配置。对重庆地票政策进行实证研究,探讨其经验在长江中三角区域中的应用,可为中三角的城乡融合发展和区域经济增长提供建议参考。
      方法/过程  以2008—2020年重庆市38个区县的地票交易数据和相关经济数据为样本,构建多元回归模型,并选择动态GMM模型解决因互为因果关系而产生的稳健性问题,论证重庆地票政策对重庆经济的增长效应。以中三角区域的湖北、湖南和江西为样本省份,利用2012—2018年的数据,分析在三省实施建设用地指标自由交易的必要性。
      结果/结论  结果表明:重庆地票交易行为与重庆实际GDP以及人均实际GDP之间均呈现正相关关系,且分别在5%和1%的置信水平下显著;中三角地区内经济发展水平不同,土地资源禀赋差异较大,能够借鉴重庆地票政策,通过建设用地指标的流动交易获得更多的经济效应。据此并结合风险分析,提出设置指标交易量的合理上下限、发展中三角区域特色农业产业、推进户籍制度改革和基本公共服务均等化等对策建议。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective/Meaning  Nowadays, the dual system of urban and rural land system restricts the free trade of construction land indicators and hinders the optimal allocation of economic elements of indicators. Based on the empirical study of the land ticket policy in Chongqing, the application of its experience in the central Yangtze Delta region was discussed, which could provide suggestions for the urban-rural integration development and the regional economic growth in the central Yangtze Delta region.
      Methods/Procedures  By taking the land ticket transaction data and the related economic data of 38 districts and counties in Chongqing from 2008 to 2020 as the samples, the multiple regression model was constructed. Then, the dynamic GMM model was selected to solve the robustness problem caused by mutual causality, and the effect of the land ticket policy in Chongqing on the economic growth of Chongqing was demonstrated. By taking Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi in the central Yangtze Delta region as the three experimental provinces, the necessity of implementing the free trade of construction land indicators in the three provinces was analyzed based on the data from 2012 to 2018.
      Results/Conclusions  The results showed that the land ticket transaction behavior in Chongqing was positively correlated with the real GDP and per capita real GDP in Chongqing, and it was significant at the confidence level of 5% and 1%, respectively. Due to the different levels of internal economic development and great differences in the land resource endowment, the central Yangtze Delta region could learn from the land ticket policy in Chongqing and obtain more economic effects through the current transaction of construction land indicators. Accordingly, through the risk analysis, some countermeasures were put forward including setting the reasonable upper and lower limits of index trading volume, developing the characteristic agricultural industries in the central Yangtze Delta region, promoting the reform of household registration system and the equalization of basic public services.

     

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