EKC视角下福建省农业碳排放与经济增长关系的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Relationship Between Agricultural Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Fujian Province from the Perspective of EKC

  • 摘要: 【目的/意义】探究福建省农业碳排放与农业经济发展水平关系,分析农业碳排放的影响因素,可为福建省发展低碳农业和生态农业提供理论依据和优化策略。【方法/过程】从农地使用、农作物种植、农业物资使用和畜牧养殖4个方面构建农业碳排放指标体系,基于2000-2019年福建省农业相关数据,计算福建省农业碳排放;分析并验证福建省农业碳排放与经济增长关系的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC),加入控制变量并进一步验证;最后分析影响福建省农业碳排放的因素。【结果/结论】结果表明:(1)福建农业碳排放和农业经济增长之间的关系符合库兹涅茨曲线,呈“倒U”形;福建省农业碳排放在“倒U”型曲线的右端,处于下降阶段;(2)加入控制变量后的环境库兹捏茨曲线呈“倒U型”,曲线的拐点后移,但依然在2019年之前到达拐点。建议福建省制定低碳农业发展路径:一要考虑经济发展和环境质量;二要协调农业经济增长和农业碳排放的发展;三要合理安排农业种植和畜牧养殖。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective/Meaning】Exploring the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and the level of agricultural economic development in Fujian Province and analyzing the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions can provide theoretical basis and optimization strategies for developing the low-carbon agriculture and ecological agriculture in Fujian Province.【Methods/Procedures】The agricultural carbon emission index system was constructed from four aspects: farmland use, crop planting, agricultural material use and livestock breeding. Based on the agricultural data of Fujian Province from 2000 to 2019, the agricultural carbon emissions of Fujian Province were calculated. The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) of the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth in Fujian Province was analyzed and verified, and then the control variables were added and further verified. Finally, the factors affecting the agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian Province were analyzed. 【Results/Conclusions】The results showed that: (1)The relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth in Fujian conformed to the Kuznets curve, showing an inverted U shape; and the agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian Province were at the right end of the inverted U curve and in a declining stage. (2)The environmental Kuznets curve showed an “inverted U shape” after adding the control variables, and the inflection point of the curve has moved back, but it still reached the inflection point before 2019. It was suggested that the development path of low-carbon agriculture in Fujian Province should firstly consider the economic development and environmental quality, and secondly coordinate the development of agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions, and third rationally arrange the agricultural planting and livestock breeding.

     

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