基于Census X12和HP滤波法的台湾地区杏鲍菇价格波动解析

Analysis on the Price Fluctuation of Pleurotus Eryngii in Taiwan Based on Census X12 Seasonal Adjustment and HP Filter Method

  • 摘要: 【目的/意义】杏鲍菇是台湾交易量最高的食用菌种类,然而学界多仅研究其培育技术,忽略了其在食用菌市场具有的行业指标性意义,文章致力于补足台湾食用菌价格的研究缺失,以完善台湾食用菌市场的行业性指标。【方法/过程】根据台湾“行政院农产品批发市场交易行情站”公布的杏鲍菇月均价格统计数据,通过Census X12季节调整法和HP滤波法研究杏鲍菇价格从2003年1月到2019年8月的变化情况。【结果/结论】总体而言,杏鲍菇价格渐趋平稳。其中,趋势分量历经“两升两降”,目前处于下行阶段;周期分量波幅和周期长度均缩小,仅最后一个周期又逐渐增大。进而提出可以通过革新技术、健全产业链和提升品牌价值等相关对策,促进台湾地区该行业的持续发展。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective/Meaning】Pleurotus eryngii is the most traded type of edible mushrooms in Taiwan. However, most scholars only studied its cultivation technology, ignoring its industrial index significance in the market of edible mushrooms. The thesis was to make up for the lack of research on the price of edible mushrooms in Taiwan. 【Methods/Procedures】According to the statistical data of monthly average price of pleurotus eryngii published by the “Trading Station of the Wholesale Market of Agricultural Products of Taiwan Executive Yuan”, Census X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filter method were used to study the fluctuation of price from January 2003 to August 2019. 【Results/Conclusions】In general, the price of pleurotus eryngii was gradually stable. Among them, the trend component has experienced “two ups and two downs” and was in the downward trend at present. The amplitude and length of the periodic component both decreased on the whole, but both of them increased gradually in the last period. Furthermore, the relevant countermeasures were proposed to promote the sustainable development of the industry, including innovating the technology, improving the industrial chain and enhancing the brand value, etc.

     

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