区域农业科技人才需求关联因素定量分析及预测——以福建省为例

Quantitative Analysis and Prediction of Demand-related Factors of Regional Agricultural Scientific and Technological Talents——Take Fujian Province as an Example

  • 摘要: 【目的/意义】制定与经济社会协调发展的人才规划和培养计划关键在于对未来人才需求量的准确预测,通过研究为制定福建农业科技人才未来发展战略提供理论支撑。【方法/过程】以2002-2016年的相关数据为分析基础,采用相关性分析和逐步回归方法对影响福建农业科技人才需求数量的相关因素进行深入挖掘和排序,并在解析影响因素体系的基础上采用组合预测模型进行需求量预测。【结果/结论】分析表明,农林牧渔业从业人员数、农林牧渔业全社会固定资产投资额、农业机械总动力依次对农业科技人员需求量存在明显正相关关系。“十三五”时期福建农业科技人才年均增长率为12.29%,人才的需求不仅在数量上仍有较大空间,而且年均增长速度也逐年上升。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective/Meaning】The key to making the talent planning and training plan in coordination with economic and social development lies in accurately predicting the future talent demand.【Methods/Procedures】Based on the analysis of relevant data from 2002 to 2016, the correlation analysis and stepwise regression method were used to deeply explore and sort the relevant factors influencing the quantity of demand for agricultural science and technology talents in Fujian Province, and the combined forecasting model was used to predict the demand on the basis of analyzing the influencing factor system.【Results/Conclusions】The analysis showed that the number of employees in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, the investment in fixed assets of the whole society in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and the total power of agricultural machinery in turn had a significant positive correlation with the demand for agricultural scientific and technological personnel. During the 13th Five-year Plan period, the annual growth rate of agricultural scientific and technological talents in Fujian was 12.29%, and the demand for talents not only still had a large space in the quantity, but also the annual growth rate was increasing year by year.

     

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