2005-2015年中原城市群生态效率及影响因素分析——基于DEA-Malmquist-Tobit模型的实证研究

Ecological Efficiency and Influencing Factors for Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration in 2005-2015 Based on DEA-Malmquist-Tobit Model

  • 摘要: 【目的/意义】以中原城市群为研究对象,通过对其生态效率进行分析以指出中原城市群发展中可能面临的问题并针对性地提出相关对策建议。【方法/过程】建立了有关生态效率的投入产出指标体系,运用传统DEA模型对其2005—2015年的生态效率进行静态分析,之后运用Malmquist指数对效率进行动态分析,最后构建Tobit回归模型对生态效率的其他影响因素进行实证分析。【结果/结论】中原城市群整体生态效率波动较小,但各地市差异显著;水、电等资源投入过多,固体废弃物等污染物的过度排放是制约生态效率提高的主要因素;通过Malmquist指数分解可以看出技术进步是生态效率提升的动力所在,并且技术波动与生态效率的波动几乎同步;通过回归分析,可以看出通过加快产业结构调整,扩大开放力度促使经济发展有助于城市群生态效率的提高。要提高中原城市群生态效率,各地市应加强合作、突破行政壁垒、从技术、管理和奖励等多角度鼓励创新以减少污染物的排放,并积极转变发展方式,增加诸如旅游观光等第三产业比重;同时各地还应充分利用现有平台,完善投资环境,吸引外资向绿色循环产业发展。

     

    Abstract: 【Objective/Meaning】This article focuses on the ecological efficiency of Zhongyuan urban agglomeration, aiming to find the existing problems in the development and propose corresponding countermeasures. 【Methods/Procedures】An input-output indicator system for ecological efficiency was established. The ecological efficiency of Zhongyuan urban agglomeration from 2005 to 2015 was firstly analyzed with a static DEA model, and then dynamically analyzed by Malmquist index. Finally, Tobit regression model was constructed to evaluate other influencing factors of the ecological efficiency. 【Results/Conclusions】The results showed that the overall eco-efficiency of Zhongyuan urban agglomerations fluctuated little, but there were significant differences among cities. The over-investment of water, electricity and other resources, and the excessive emission of solid wastes were the main factors restricting the improvement of eco-efficiency. The Malmquist index decomposition results presented that technological progress was the driving force of eco-efficiency improvement, and the technical fluctuations and eco-efficiency fluctuations were almost synchronous. The regression analysis concluded that accelerating the adjustment of industrial structure and expanding the opening up degree of economic development could improve the ecological efficiency of urban agglomerations. To improve the ecological efficiency of Zhongyuan urban agglomeration, It is required to strengthen cooperation among cities and towns to break through administrative barriers, and to encourage innovation on technology, management and incentives to reduce pollutant emissions; to actively change development patterns to increase tertiary industries, such as tourism industry; and to fully utilize the available platforms to improve the investment environment and attract foreign investment on green recycling industry.

     

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