基于ARIMA模型的闽台GDP预测比较研究

Comparative Study on the GDP Prediction of Fujian and Taiwan Based on ARIMA Model

  • 摘要: GDP是衡量一个国家(或地区)经济发展状况的重要指标。改革开放以来,福建经济发展迅速,闽台GDP差距逐渐缩小。为了对未来闽台经济发展趋势的评估,该文借助Eviews 6.0软件,利用时间序列相关理论建立了闽台GDP的ARIMA模型,对闽台GDP趋势进行了预测与分析。结果表明,未来福建GDP(预测值)将超越台湾,但应强调发展的质量,致力提升内里,突出对台特色,推进自贸区建设,同时应加强闽台产业深度合作,推动闽台融合发展。

     

    Abstract: GDP is an important indicator to measure the economic development status of a country (or a region).Since the reform and opening up, the economic in Fujian has developed rapidly and the gap of GDP between Fujian and Taiwan has been narrowing.In order to predict the trends of economic development in Fujian and Taiwan in the future, this paper established ARIMA model on GDP of Fujian and Taiwan by use of the Eviews 6.0 software and time-series theory, and then maked prediction and analysis on the trend of GDP in Fujian and Taiwan.The results showed that the predicted GDP value of Fujian would surpass that of Taiwan in the future.However, in the course of surpassing, it was quite necessary to put more emphasis on the quality of development, enhance the internal power, highlight the features of Fujian to Taiwan, promote the construction of free trade zone, strengthen the depth of industrial cooperation and promote the integrated development between Fujian and Taiwan.

     

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