浙江省投资、消费与经济增长关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship among Investment, Consumption and Economic Growth in Zhejiang

  • 摘要: 为了研究浙江省居民消费、投资与经济增长的真实关系,将消费需求和投资作为经济增长的解释性指标,对这三项指标1990—2012年的时间序列数据进行了VAR模型检验,得出:投资对进口冲击在经历短期的正向冲击后转向负向冲击,冲击效果有由弱转强的趋势,两者的持续时间较长;消费需求对浙江省经济增长具有正向冲击,冲击效果稳定促进。在此基础上提出了提高消费需求、优化投资结构的政策建议。

     

    Abstract: In order to research the real relationship between the residents’ consumption, investment and economic growth in Zhejiang, this paper took consumer demand and investment as the explanatory indexes of economic growth, and the three indexes were tested by using VAR model based on the times series data from1990 to 2012. The result showed the impact of investment on import turned to the negative impact from the positive impact, the effect trends of the impact was from weak to strong, and they had a longer duration; the consumer demand had a positive impact on economic growth in Zhejiang, the effect of the impact was stable and stimulative. Based on the analysis, policy suggestions were put forward to promote the consumer demand and optimize investment structure.

     

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